Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro has the flexibility and the incentive to offer crude oil cargoes, which the country mostly sells to China, as a bargaining chip if Venezuela were to hold negotiations with the United States.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration, which has boosted its military presence in the Caribbean, has said he is open to talks with Maduro, whose government has struggled to lure foreign investment in the country’s oilfields amid U.S. sanctions.
The U.S. on Monday formally designated Venezuela’s Cartel de los Soles a foreign terrorist organization, increasing pressure on Maduro amid preparations to launch further operations in the coming days, according to sources.
CRUDE OIL LEVERAGE
OPEC member Venezuela’s oil production has stabilized around 1.1 million barrels per day this year, less than a third of its all-time high in the late 1990s. More than 80% of exports were shipped to China between June and October, according to shipping data.
Those cargoes, alongside possible operating licenses for U.S. companies, could be Maduro’s best leverage in any talks, analysts say.
Sending more oil to the U.S. and protecting U.S. investment in Venezuela is something Maduro can easily offer,” said energy analyst Thomas O’Donnell. However, the offer “might not be enough now that Washington has the upper hand,” he said, referring to the oil market’s current stability and low prices.
Venezuela’s Oil Minister Delcy Rodriguez said on Monday the U.S. has targeted Venezuela because of its vast crude reserves.
“They want Venezuela’s oil and gas reserves. For nothing, without paying,” she said, having previously noted U.S. Gulf refiners’ demand for Venezuela’s heavy crude grades. The U.S. mainly produces light oil.
Venezuelan oil exports to the U.S. through a license to PDVSA’s partner Chevron (CVX.N), opens new tab fell in the third quarter to half the volume of the first quarter.
VENEZUELA COULD DIVERT CARGOES
Most of Venezuelan state oil company PDVSA’s supply contracts were suspended when the U.S. hit the country with sanctions in 2019, forcing PDVSA to sell almost all its oil on the spot market at large discounts.
Because PDVSA is no longer committed to long-term supply agreements, it could divert crude cargoes bound for Chinese independent refiners to the U.S. and Europe under a fresh political agreement.
Venezuela’s Oil Ministry, PDVSA, the White House, and the U.S. State Department did not immediately reply to requests for comment.
Washington has for years blocked cash payments to PDVSA, but the oil company has vast experience with oil swaps that allow it to exchange its crude for much-needed fuel imports.
Venezuela’s oil shipments to China have increased in the second half of 2025 to more than 80% of total exports, mainly due to U.S. policies preventing exports to other destinations, compared with 63% all of last year, according to LSEG tanker movement data and internal PDVSA documents seen by Reuters. That leaves room for diversifying the destination of exports.
