A 43-day U.S. government shutdown has disrupted what was expected to be record Thanksgiving air travel, leading many Americans to scrap or rethink their plans.
Although millions were projected to fly during the holiday period, mounting delays and cancellations throughout the shutdown made travelers wary. Elizabeth Kelley, 45, chose not to travel from her home to Maine this Thanksgiving, saying the stress and uncertainty simply weren’t worth it.
The AAA had forecast about 6 million domestic travelers, a 2% increase from 2024. But after the shutdown reached its one-month mark, bookings began to fall, with the sharpest drop occurring after the FAA ordered flight reductions at 40 major airports.
Data from Cirium showed that as of November 24, bookings for the five-day Thanksgiving window were down 4.48% compared to last year. By contrast, bookings were still up 1.56% on October 31, before declining steadily.
At Newark Airport on Monday, FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford urged travelers to remain confident while preparing for crowded terminals and potential weather complications. “This week is our Super Bowl,” he said. “We have a strong plan in place—fly with confidence.”
Airlines are feeling the uncertainty differently. Southwest Airlines said the shutdown and broader economic concerns have complicated demand forecasts, though OAG notes the carrier added 200,000 more domestic seats year-over-year. Delta expects to serve about 6.5 million passengers, roughly the same as last year.
American Airlines anticipates operating nearly 81,000 flights, up from 77,000 in 2024, while United Airlines expects a record 6.6 million travelers over a 13-day stretch and has increased international seat capacity by 9%.
Some carriers and agents are also seeing last-minute demand return as confidence rebounds. Travel agent Kimberly Hillard reported two eleventh-hour holiday bookings—to Aruba and Costa Rica—after many clients had paused plans during the shutdown.
Despite the turbulence, the FAA predicts this Thanksgiving will be the busiest travel period in 15 years, with the highest passenger volume expected on Tuesday, November 25.
