Uncertainty over whether the European Union will ban Russian nuclear fuel is discouraging investment in Europe’s uranium-enrichment industry, according to Urenco CEO Boris Schucht, who says the lack of a clear policy is making it difficult for companies to commit billions of euros to new capacity.
More than four years after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russian nuclear fuel remains largely outside the EU’s sanctions framework, even as the bloc has imposed sweeping restrictions on Russian oil and gas.
The European Commission announced in May 2025 that it intended to develop a plan to phase out Russian nuclear fuel, but it has yet to formally present the proposal.
Lack of political clarity worries investors
Schucht said the nuclear industry needs a clear political direction from European governments before making major long-term investment decisions.
According to him, uncertainty is particularly problematic because Russia still has significant excess uranium-enrichment capacity. If Europe expands its own production while Russian nuclear fuel remains available, companies could eventually face increased competition from cheaper Russian supplies.
“It’s very difficult to make investment decisions when you know there are large over-capacities on the Russian side and they could easily come back,” Schucht said.
He acknowledged that the uncertainty is already affecting investment decisions.
Urenco is one of the world’s largest uranium-enrichment companies and currently operates major facilities in Britain, Germany, the Netherlands and the United States. The company is expanding its enrichment capacity, but further investment in Europe will depend partly on how the EU handles Russian nuclear fuel.
The risk of Russian supplies being redirected
One of Urenco’s biggest concerns is that restrictions in other Western markets could cause Russian uranium to be redirected toward Europe.
The United States is preparing to implement a ban on Russian uranium in 2028 and has committed $2.7 billion in public funding this year to expand domestic uranium-enrichment capacity.
The United Kingdom also banned most Russian uranium imports in May.
If Russia loses access to the U.S. market while the EU continues accepting its nuclear fuel, more Russian material could potentially flow into Europe.
Schucht warned that such a development could undermine the business case for building additional European enrichment capacity.
“If the former exports to the U.S. arrive in a few years in the EU,” he said, “then it does not make sense for us to expand our plans in the EU.”
EU faces resistance to a Russian nuclear ban
The European Commission says it remains committed to reducing Europe’s dependence on Russian energy.
A Commission spokesperson said work is continuing on measures targeting Russia’s nuclear-energy sector and reiterated that the EU wants to eventually remove Russian energy from Europe’s energy system.
However, officials have indicated that there is limited political appetite for quickly introducing a ban on Russian nuclear fuel.
Several EU countries remain heavily dependent on Russian nuclear supplies, including Slovakia, Hungary and France, making agreement on a ban politically difficult.
France is particularly significant. Customs data show that Russia accounted for approximately 39% of France’s enriched uranium imports in 2025.
Across the EU, Russian companies provided around 23% of the bloc’s uranium-enrichment services and supplied approximately 16% of its natural uranium last year.
This dependence means that an immediate ban could create challenges for European nuclear operators, even if alternative suppliers are available.
Western industry says it can adapt
Despite the uncertainty, Schucht said Western nuclear companies could adjust their operations if the EU ultimately decides to prohibit Russian nuclear fuel.
The industry could potentially increase enrichment and fuel-production capacity to compensate for reduced Russian supplies, although building new facilities requires significant investment and years of planning.
That makes political certainty especially important.
Companies need confidence that the market will remain viable long enough to justify the enormous capital expenditure required to construct and operate new enrichment facilities.
Nuclear power demand is rising
The uncertainty comes at a time when demand for uranium enrichment is increasing.
Urenco reported that its order book grew by 28% during the first half of 2026, adding approximately €6 billion ($6.92 billion) in orders compared with the end of 2025.
The company attributed the growth partly to utilities extending the operating lives of existing nuclear power plants and increasing demand for electricity, including power required by rapidly expanding data centers.
The surge in artificial intelligence and cloud computing has made reliable electricity supply increasingly important, with nuclear power gaining attention as a source of stable, low-carbon electricity.
Europe faces a strategic choice
The EU is therefore facing a difficult balancing act.
On one side, cutting Russian nuclear imports would strengthen Europe’s energy independence and reduce its reliance on Moscow. On the other, moving away from Russian supplies too quickly could create short-term supply challenges and increase costs for nuclear operators.
For companies such as Urenco, however, the bigger concern is uncertainty.
Without a clear EU policy, companies risk investing billions in new enrichment capacity only to face competition from Russian uranium that could return to the European market.
The nuclear industry is consequently pressing for clarity—not necessarily demanding that Europe choose one particular policy, but asking governments to make a decision so companies can plan accordingly.
