Diesel prices in Europe have risen above jet fuel prices for the first time in more than a year, highlighting the growing imbalance in global refined-fuel markets as supplies become increasingly difficult to secure.
According to LSEG data, European diesel cargoes are now trading at a premium to jet fuel. The shift comes as European refiners and traders manage disruptions to supplies from the Middle East while struggling to replace lost diesel volumes needed by the region’s transport, industrial and agricultural sectors.
The situation has been intensified by the conflict involving Iran, which has disrupted crude and refined-product flows through the Middle East. Europe has managed to replace some of its lost jet-fuel supplies by purchasing cargoes from the United States and countries such as Nigeria, where refiners have become increasingly important suppliers to international markets.
Diesel, however, has proved considerably harder to replace.
Russian restrictions deepen diesel shortage
Global diesel markets have also been hit by disruptions to Russian fuel supplies. Russia recently restricted diesel exports as Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries affected the country’s refining capacity.
The combination of reduced Russian exports, Middle Eastern supply disruptions and strong European demand has tightened the diesel market considerably.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs warned that diesel could face a more persistent shortage than crude oil as the northern hemisphere approaches winter.
The concern is particularly significant for Europe, where diesel is heavily used by commercial transportation, agriculture, construction and industry. A prolonged shortage could therefore feed into transportation and production costs across the economy.
Europe increases jet fuel imports
While diesel supplies have declined, Europe has been able to attract increasing volumes of jet fuel from international suppliers.
Data from Kpler shows that European jet-fuel imports reached approximately 750,000 barrels per day in June, the highest level since October 2025. Imports remained around the same level in July, compared with just 612,000 barrels per day in January.
The increase reflects Europe’s ability to source jet fuel from alternative suppliers as Middle Eastern supplies become less reliable.
Nigeria has also emerged as an important source of refined petroleum products for Europe, helping fill some of the gap created by disruptions elsewhere.
Diesel imports moving in the opposite direction
European diesel imports have followed a very different trajectory.
Imports fell to around 1.56 million barrels per day in July, down sharply from approximately 1.97 million barrels per day in January.
That decline has coincided with renewed price pressure.
Diesel prices have rallied strongly in recent weeks as uncertainty surrounding Iran peace negotiations has continued and Russian fuel exports have been disrupted. Prices are now only about 14% below their April highs, showing how quickly the market has tightened.
Karim Fawaz of S&P Global Energy said optimism in refined-product markets had quickly disappeared as renewed fighting around the Strait of Hormuz and the collapse in Russian product supplies created another wave of pressure.
Jet fuel loses its premium
The changing supply picture has also dramatically altered the relationship between jet fuel and diesel.
Jet fuel traditionally commands a premium over gasoil in certain market conditions because of its specifications and demand from the aviation industry. However, weakening jet-fuel demand and stronger diesel demand have now reversed that relationship.
On August 10, the European jet-fuel cargo price was assessed at roughly $24 per metric ton below European gasoil futures, according to LSEG data.
That represents the widest discount since July 2025.
The change is particularly striking compared with the early stages of the Iran conflict. At the height of the market disruption in March, jet fuel was trading at a premium of more than $500 per barrel, reflecting fears that Middle Eastern aviation-fuel supplies would be severely disrupted.
What it means for consumers and industry
The diesel shortage could have wider economic consequences than the current price movements suggest.
Diesel is essential to trucking, shipping, farming, construction and industrial activity. If supplies remain tight into the winter, higher diesel prices could increase transportation and operating costs, potentially pushing up prices for goods and services.
Europe’s ability to secure additional jet fuel provides some relief for the aviation sector, but the growing shortage of diesel presents a much broader challenge.
The latest price shift is therefore more than a change in the ranking of two fuels. It is a sign that the global energy market is becoming increasingly fragmented, with geopolitical tensions, Russian supply disruptions and problems around the Strait of Hormuz reshaping where Europe gets its fuel—and how much it must pay for it.
