Compared with September 2025, the latest Consumer Expectations Survey shows a largely stable outlook among households, with only slight changes across inflation, income, and credit expectations.
Key developments include:
-
Inflation: Perceptions of inflation over the past 12 months remained unchanged. Expectations for inflation three and five years ahead were also steady, while short-term (12-month) inflation expectations rose slightly.
-
Income & Spending: Expected nominal income growth increased slightly, while expectations for spending growth held steady.
-
Economic Outlook: Households became marginally less pessimistic about economic growth, though expectations for the unemployment rate increased.
-
Housing: Expected home price growth remained unchanged, while expectations for mortgage rates continued to edge upward.
Inflation
In October, consumers’ perceived inflation for the past year remained fixed at 3.1%, marking the ninth month of no change. Short-term inflation expectations rose slightly from 2.7% in September to 2.8% in October. Expectations for inflation three years ahead stayed at 2.5%, while five-year-ahead expectations also remained stable at 2.2%.
Uncertainty surrounding inflation expectations did not change. Respondents in lower-income groups continued to report marginally higher inflation perceptions and short-term expectations than higher-income households—a pattern consistent since 2023. Younger participants (18–34) continued to show lower inflation perceptions and expectations than older age groups.
Income and Consumption
Expected nominal income growth for the next 12 months increased from 1.1% to 1.2%. Perceived spending growth over the previous year remained at 4.9%, while expected spending growth for the next year stayed unchanged at 3.5%.
Lower- and middle-income households continued to report slightly higher expected spending growth than higher-income households.
Economic Growth and Labour Market
Expectations for economic growth over the next year became slightly less negative, improving from –1.2% in September to –1.1% in October. Meanwhile, the expected unemployment rate 12 months ahead increased from 10.7% to 11.0%.
As in earlier months:
-
Lower-income households predicted the highest future unemployment rate (13.2%)
-
Higher-income households predicted the lowest (9.4%)
Quarterly indicators also showed:
-
Unemployed respondents saw their chance of finding a job rise from 22.6% (July) to 24.5% (October)
-
Employed respondents expected a slightly lower probability of job loss, decreasing from 8.7% (July) to 8.5% (October)
Housing and Credit Access
Households expected home prices to grow by 3.5% over the next year—unchanged from September. These expectations were broadly consistent across income groups, ranging from 3.7% (lowest income) to 3.4% (highest income).
Expectations for mortgage interest rates increased for the second month in a row, rising from 4.6% to 4.7%. Lower-income households again anticipated the highest future rates (5.4%), while higher-income households expected the lowest (4.2%).
Households also reported:
-
A greater net share experiencing tighter credit access over the past year
-
A rising expectation of even tighter credit conditions over the next 12 months
-
A decline in the proportion of consumers applying for credit during the previous three months (15.7% in October vs. 16.0% in July)
Next Release
The next CES results (for November) will be published on 8 January 2026.
Notes
-
Monthly aggregated results for each euro area country are available on the ECB Data Portal and the ECB website.
-
Unless otherwise stated, all statistics refer to the 2% winsorised mean.
-
The CES collects monthly information from around 19,000 consumers, aged 18+, across 11 euro area countries.
-
More details are available in the CES methodology guide and related ECB publications.
-
Survey responses do not represent the views of ECB policymakers or staff.
