LONDON, Nov 12 — The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) latest World Energy Outlook delivers a sharp shift in tone, projecting that global oil demand could continue climbing through 2050 — a stark contrast to its earlier forecasts and a reminder of the enduring dominance of fossil fuels in the world economy.
Traditionally a routine publication, this year’s report has sparked political debate after U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration accused the Paris-based agency of bias for previously suggesting oil demand might peak by 2030. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright dismissed those earlier projections as “nonsensical.”
In a notable revision, the 2025 report introduces a Current Policy Scenario (CPS) predicting oil demand will rise to 113 million barrels per day by mid-century, up roughly 13% from 2024 consumption levels.
A Troubling Climate Message
The CPS incorporates existing global policies — from renewable mandates to emissions standards — but takes a cautious view on how quickly clean technologies will expand. While some critics see the new outlook as a reality check against overly optimistic “green” forecasts, its implications are sobering.
If realized, the scenario points to a 2.9°C increase in global temperatures by 2100 — nearly double the 1.5°C limit scientists say is critical to avoiding the worst effects of climate change.
Questionable Assumptions Behind the Forecast
Analysts have questioned several of the CPS’s core assumptions. It suggests that recent declines in the cost of batteries, renewables, and electric vehicles will stall — or even reverse — in some regions through 2035. It also assumes that improvements in internal combustion engine efficiency will slow dramatically.
Central to the forecast is a conservative outlook for electric vehicle adoption. EVs made up 25% of new car sales globally in 2025, up from 5% in 2020, yet the IEA predicts that share will plateau at around 15% in markets like the United States and India, even as it surges to 90% in China and the European Union by 2035.
Critics argue this view ignores the rapid pace of global innovation, cost reductions, and changing consumer behavior. With EVs becoming cheaper and more accessible, it’s hard to imagine U.S. buyers clinging to older technologies as newer, cleaner options proliferate.
The report also assumes sustained growth in gasoline and diesel demand through 2050 — a projection that would necessitate massive new refining investments, unlikely without persistently high oil prices. Yet, higher fuel costs could make internal combustion vehicles even less competitive, undermining the very assumption of rising demand.
Overall, the CPS appears built on the belief that barriers to clean energy adoption will deepen — a view that many find at odds with reality, given record global investments in renewables and new technologies. In 2025 alone, clean energy spending is projected to hit $2.2 trillion, boosted by advances in artificial intelligence and a renewed focus on energy security.
Balancing Energy Security and Transition
The IEA’s updated position reflects political and economic realities that have slowed the global transition in recent years. The energy crisis following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine pushed governments to prioritize short-term energy security over climate goals.
The United States further disrupted momentum after President Trump withdrew from the Paris Agreement on his first day of his second term and rolled back several major climate regulations.
Still, the agency acknowledges that moving away from fossil fuels remains an economic imperative. The costs of mitigating climate disasters are far higher than the investments required to scale clean energy technologies.
As world leaders gather in Belém, Brazil, for the upcoming COP30 climate summit, the IEA’s new outlook serves as both a wake-up call and a warning — that without decisive action, the path toward “net zero” may be slipping further out of reach.
